With the Hollywood movie plot, magazine cover, and news headlines, the competition between artificial intelligence (AI) and humans has successfully attracted a lot of attention. The prophets warned that AI would steal work, violate the law, and wage war. But such predictions have a bearing on the distant future. Today's competition is not a race between people and machines. It is a competition among the world's technology giants. These giants are rushing to hope that they will take a step forward in the AI ​​field.
AI-related global mergers and acquisitions
Machine learning is the most relevant branch of these companies and AI. Computers screen data to identify patterns and make predictions without explicit programming. The technology is now used in a variety of applications in the technology industry, including online advertising positioning, product recommendations, augmented reality, and unmanned vehicles. Zoubin Ghahramani, who leads Uber's artificial intelligence research, believes that AI will have the same transformative impact as the rise of computers.
One way to understand the potential impact of AI is to look at the database. Since the 1980s, these have been used for cognitive tasks such as storing information, digging insights and handling inventory management. The database supports the first generation of software; Frank Chen of Andreessen Horowitz, a venture capital firm, said that artificial intelligence will be more predictive and responsive. Applications such as Google’s Gmail scanning email content and providing quick one-click replies on mobile devices are also an early example of this.
Like the wave of new technologies such as personal computers and mobile phones in the past, AI has the potential to become a new company to shake up the tech giant's business by helping them repair existing businesses. But it also has a sense of threat. Amazon global consumer CEO Jeff Wilke said: "If you have a technology company, but you are not AI as a core competencies, then you have to obtain inventions from the outside."
Driven by fierce competition, high hopes and hype, the AI ​​boom is like the California gold rush. Although Chinese companies such as Baidu and Alibaba are investing in artificial intelligence and deploying it in the domestic market, the most obvious explorer is a western technology company. Alphabet is widely regarded as the leader. For many years, it has obtained considerable profits from artificial intelligence and has many of the most prestigious researchers. But now is the beginning of the competition and the game is far from over. In the next few years, large technology companies will conduct positive dialogues in three ways. They will continue to compete for talent and help cultivate the company's "brains"; they will try to apply machine learning more effectively to their existing businesses than their opponents; they will try to create new profit centers with the help of AI.
Idiot Expert
The craziest impulse is for talent, which is much less than data and computing power. The surge in demand for AI "builders" far exceeds the number of top students studying these technologies.
According to Microsoft's GurdeepSinghPall, today's AI system is like an "idiot expert". “They are very good at the industry they are engaged in, but if they are not used correctly, it is a disaster.†Hiring the right people is critical to the survival of the company (some start-ups have failed due to the lack of suitable AI technology). The trend of recruiting professors and graduate students (before completing a degree) in enterprises' looting of academic departments has started.
Andrew Moore, Dean of the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU), said that now that job offers will be compared to the crazy "Walmart Thanksgiving Black Friday Sale," the School of Computer Science is a pioneering institution for AI. It was famous for its Robotics talent who was snatched by Uber in 2015. It also aimed at academic conferences, such as the Neuro-Information Processing System Conference in Long Beach, Calif., last week, which will become a place to recruit talent reserves. The best talent to recruit is the academic AI characters: YannLeCun, like Facebook, and Geoffrey Hinton, Google, who were once university professors, can also attract people to work with them. If huge salaries are not enough to impress them, specialized information will attract them.
If these don't work, the company will buy the entire startup. In 2014, the technology industry first noticed this trend. At that time, Google spent about $500 million to acquire DeepMind, a start-up that had no income or saleable products, and only a group of “deep learning†researchers. After the deal was completed, these researchers designed a program that defeated the Go world champion. Other companies have also invested in the purchase of loss-making startups. These startups do not usually value future profits or even sales. Instead, they charge up to $5 million to $10 million per employee.
"Closed doors"
Companies have different ideas about how to deal with employees. Companies such as Microsoft and IBM have invested heavily in AI research and published numerous papers but do not require researchers to use their findings for profitable activities. At the other end of the big company, neither Apple nor Amazon have much research plans. They expect that all the work can be put into the product and they are tight-lipped about their work. Google and Facebook are somewhere in between, that is, whether researchers must work hard on making money.
AI-related research by major companies
A fierce battle for talent may force secret companies to become more open. "If you tell them, 'Work with us, but you can't tell anyone what you are doing', then they won't come because you will kill their careers." LeCun, the Facebook artificial intelligence research lab explain. This trade-off between confidentiality and the need to attract talents also applies to Chinese giants who are trying to establish western outposts and hire American researchers. Baidu opened two AI-focused research labs in Silicon Valley in 2013 and this year. Western AI researchers rated them highly, but preferred to work for American giants, partly because US companies were relatively transparent.
If companies can introduce suitable candidates in AI, the effect is equivalent to exponentially expanding their labor force. Anderson Holowitz's Benedict Evans stated that artificial intelligence "is like having a million interns." This computing power is integrated into the company's existing business.
The advantage of artificial intelligence is most evident in the forecast of business users' needs. For example, automated recommendations and recommendations account for about three-quarters of Netflix's audience and more than one-third of Amazon's purchases. Facebook, which has a popular application of Instagram, uses machine learning to identify the content of articles, photos, and videos, present relevant content to users, and filter spam. In the past, it ranked posts in chronological order, but now it provides related posts and ads to make users more involved.
Joaquin Candela, head of the Facebook application AI team, believes that Facebook will never reach its current size without machine learning. Companies that don't use AI in search engines or be late, like Yahoo and its search engine, and Microsoft's Bing, are struggling.
Amazon and Google have made the most rapid progress in applying AI to a range of businesses. Machine learning makes Amazon's online and physical operations more efficient. Amazon has about 80,000 robots at the order fulfillment center. It also uses AI to classify inventory and decide which packages to assign to which trucks. For grocery orders, computer vision is also used to identify which strawberries and other fruits are ripe and fresh and can be delivered to customers, and automated drones are being developed to deliver orders on a certain day.
As for Google, it uses AI to categorize its online video site YouTube and filter out (some) offensive information and identify and group people in its application Google Photos. AI is also embedded in Android and its operating system to help it work more smoothly and predict which applications people are interested in using. GoogleBrain is considered to be one of the best research organizations in the AI ​​field. It improves machine learning by improving search algorithms. As for DeepMind, the British company may never have created excessive real income for Alphabet, but it has helped parent companies save money by increasing the energy efficiency of global data centers.
Artificial intelligence is also used in the corporate world. David Kenny, head of IBM's AI platform Watson, predicts that there will be "two types of AI": companies that make money to provide AI services to consumers, and companies that provide these services to companies. In practice, these two types of companies meet because of the cloud computing of giant technology companies. Vendors are racing to use AI to differentiate their products and lock customers. The three largest application programming interfaces (APIs), Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, provide machine learning capabilities for other companies. For example, Microsoft's cloud product Azure helped Uber establish a verification tool that requires drivers to take selfies at work to confirm their identities. GoogleCloud provides a "job search API" to help companies match job seekers in the best position.
Brain AI
Many companies in other industries, from retail to media, have benefited from the cloud computing business, believing it to be "democratization" of AI. Providing AI for companies that have no technology or scale to build complex functions independently may be a cash cow for the $250 billion cloud computing market. However, providers often must customize the API according to the customer's complex needs, which is very time consuming. The history of Microsoft selling software to customers and providing support seems to be doing well in this area. Diane Greene, who runs Google Cloud, pointed out that AI products are becoming more and more "self-help". This is only a matter of time.
IBM is another competitor with a large marketing campaign to support its Watson platform. AI researchers are often dismissive of IBM, although IBM has a large number of consulting businesses and enjoys a reputation for exceeding terabytes of computing time. The company’s critics also pointed out that although IBM has invested more than US$15 billion in Watson and spent US$5 billion to acquire the company between 2010 and 2015, most of it is to acquire proprietary data. To a large extent, the company does not have its own unique data. Most business owners feel pressured to have an AI strategy. They will only give generously and quickly acquire one.
So far, the tech giants have mostly tried to use AI to profit from existing businesses. In the next few years, they hope that AI can establish new business. One area where fierce competition is is virtual assistants. Smartphones know users well, but virtual assistants represented by AI aim to further develop the relationship between the two parties through telephones or smart phones. When Apple acquired voice assistant Siri in 2010, it will take the lead in studying their commitments. Since then, Amazon, Google and Microsoft have invested a lot of money: their assistant's voice recognition is better. Samsung, Facebook and Baidu are also competing to provide.
An algorithm spreads all over the world
It is unclear whether stand-alone speakers will become a huge market, but it is certain that people will transcend the text and the Internet. "All these companies understand who will break the bottleneck for consumers and who will rule the market," said Pedro Domingos, author of the AI ​​book "Master Algorithm."
In the future, augmented reality (AR) equipment is another AI opportunity. Mobile applications like Snap (a messaging application) and PokémonGo games are early examples of AR. But AR can change the relationship between people and the Internet more drastically, so that instead of acquiring digital information from a small screen, they can experience it ubiquitously and ubiquitously. The AR device will provide portable AI functionality like voice interpretation and facial recognition.
In the AR competition, large technology companies are almost at the preheat stage. Google and Apple have launched AR software development kits; they all want developers to build applications that use AR on their platform. They are also eager to develop AR hardware. Google introduced prototypes of AR glasses early on but failed. Although Microsoft has developed a headset called HoloLens, but the price is between 3000-5000 US dollars, is a niche product. Other companies, including Facebook and Apple, are thought to be planning their own products. Leading in AI, you can become a leader in these new areas.
In the field of driverless cars, there is nothing more real than this. Technology companies are acquiring millions of miles to build large, proprietary data sets and use computer vision to train their systems to identify objects in the real world. The potential benefits are enormous. Personal transportation is a vast market with a global value of about 10 trillion US dollars. No matter who breaks through a car, they can apply their knowledge to other artificial intelligence-based projects such as drones and robots. Unlike search engines, people can choose good enough services. Users are more inclined to support the safety record of the best unmanned vehicles. This means that companies should best deploy AI to plan the physical world and minimize accidents before they will benefit. maximize.
Each company deals with this issue in different ways. Chinese giant Baidu is trying to build a self-driving operating system, just like Google's Android on mobile devices (although it is not yet clear how the plan will make money). Like Uber, electric car maker Tesla, a group of little-known startups, and increasingly sophisticated automakers, Alphabet is also working hard on unmanned vehicles. (According to legend, Apple has retracted its ambitions.)
Driverless cars are just one example of how tech companies’ AI strategy goes beyond software virtual worlds to hardware. Many companies including Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft are also investing in the construction of specialized, powerful “AI chips†that can support their various activities. These will compete with companies such as Nvidia, which has already made a splash in the use of powerful chips in various AI areas such as self-driving cars and virtual reality.
It is not yet clear whether companies such as Alphabet and Apple will sell these chips to rival companies or keep them for themselves. They have the incentive to use their own innovations to improve their services rather than leasing them or selling them to competitors. If this means that only a handful of companies have developed meaningful advantages in their powerful computing capabilities, this may become one question.
This leads to a broader question, namely whether AI will be further concentrated in today's digital giant. Considering that they have a wealth of data, computing power, intelligent algorithms, and human resources, it seems that the current technology group is likely to grasp the many benefits of AI, not to mention the pioneers of investment. History shows the possibility of concentration; whether it is a database or a personal computer, as long as a period of time, there will be a group of technology companies (Oracle and IBM in the database, Microsoft and Apple in the personal computer) dominate.
Google seems to be at the forefront of talent, computing power and data. It can afford the smartest people, from drones to cars, to smart software, and so on, and people who are interested in machine learning rarely leave. Other companies must learn to take AI seriously. Google founder is an early loyal supporter of machine learning and has always considered it a competitive advantage.
AI's Spiritual Home
Some technology industries, such as Tesla and owner of the rocket company SpaceX, Elon Musk, are concerned that Alphabet and other companies monopolize AI talent and expertise. He and other well-known Silicon Valley bosses funded OpenAI, a non-profit research organization that specializes in AI without any corporate contacts. Musk and others are concerned that when a company eventually breaks through "general intelligence," that is, if a computer has the ability to perform any human task without explicit programming, what happens. This vision may have been for decades, but this does not prevent Google from talking about it. GoogleBrain boss Jeff Dean said: "Of course we want to" break through the general AI. If a company can do it, then it can completely change the competitive landscape.
At the same time, it depends to a large extent on the openness and cooperation of technology companies. In addition to publishing papers, many companies now open their machine learning software libraries to provide internal tools for competitors and independent developers. Google's library TensorFlow is particularly popular. Facebook has open sourced two libraries, Caffe2 and Pytorch. Openness has strategic advantages. When they are used, the library is debugged and gains reputational benefits. Another non-profit research group Oren Etzioni of the Allen Allen Artificial Intelligence Institute quipped: "Be careful of those geeks with gifts."
A master in this area fears that libraries like TensorFlow will bring talented researchers, but their owners may start charging later, or otherwise make money. Such caution may be wise, but when the gold rush is underway, few people will consider long-term problems. So now in Silicon Valley, most of the technicians are consumed too much time by AI's promises and potential profits, and have no power to worry about the future.
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