The turning point of Lewis, that is, the turning point of surplus labor to shortage, refers to the gradual transfer of rural surplus labor to non-agricultural industries in the process of industrialization, and the rural surplus labor gradually decreases, eventually reaching a bottleneck state.
Lewis turning point phenomenon
Lewis believes that there is a dual economic structure in the early stages of development in a country, a “maintenance†sector (represented by the traditional agricultural sector) produced by traditional means of production; and a “capitalist†sector produced by modern production methods ( Represented by the industrial sector and the city). The agricultural sector has a large population and a fast growth. Due to the law of diminishing marginal productivity, its marginal productivity is very low or even zero, and there is a large surplus of labor in the agricultural sector.
At this time, as long as the industrial sector can provide a fixed wage slightly larger than the minimum living standard for the rural population, the agricultural sector will have a large amount of labor to the industrial sector, providing an unlimited supply of labor for the expansion of the industrial sector. (The so-called “infinite supply of labor†means that the labor supply curve has unlimited flexibility at a given wage level. “A fixed wage†is the minimum income level required for the labor force in the agricultural sector to maintain a living.) Because of the supply of labor at a given wage level It is infinite. The industrial sector converts the profits obtained into reinvestment when the real wages are constant. The scale is continuously expanded until the rural surplus labor is fully absorbed. At this time, the wages have changed from horizontal movement to steep rise. In economics, it is called "Lewis Turning Point."
Demographic Dividend
Corresponding to the “Lewis Turning Point†is the “demographic dividendâ€. The cheap labor created by the increase in the number of young people provides the price of the element with relatively cheap economic development. For many developing countries, cheap labor is an important factor in development, and this is also evident in China's economic growth model.
There seems to be a positive correlation between the “Lewis Turning Point†and the “demographic dividendâ€. The former manifestation is often a precursor to the gradual disappearance of the “demographic dividendâ€. The “inflection point†we are facing refers more to the “primary labor force†field. Correspondingly, the number of “intermediate laborers†represented by technicians and technicians is becoming insufficient (the “high-level labor force†above the university undergraduate students is Increase, but the quality is not optimistic), which further exacerbates the risks of future development.
　　 Is the Lewis turning point really coming?Since the beginning of this year, there have been more and more people talking about Lewis's turning point. All kinds of signs seem to indicate that such a turning point has already arrived in China. Lewis's turning point in China is whether it is a fait accompli, or is about to come, or will never come, causing no small disputes. At the same time, this is definitely not a terminology in the development economics of "Lewis Turning Point". For the first time, it has become a buzzword in the hot debate. . . . . .
China may have entered the Lewis population turning point and began to change its population structure.
China is likely to have entered the “Lewis Turning Point†a few years ago. The reasons are obvious: First, from the perspective of demand, China’s economy has grown strongly over the past 20 years and created a large number of jobs, attracting thousands of rural people. Urban and factory companies work; secondly, there has been a huge demographic shift in the supply side.
The family planning policy was implemented in the city since the 1970s. By the end of the 1970s, the family planning policy was officially defined as the “only child†policy.
National Development and Reform Commission expert: China Lewis inflection point will appear in 5-10 years
The financial crisis has passed, but for the countries of the world, how to make major adjustments after the crisis has become a compulsory subject. Zhang Yansheng, dean of the National Development and Reform Commission's Economic Research Institute, said: In this round of major adjustments, the biggest challenge facing China is that in the next five to ten years, the low-cost competitive advantage will undergo tremendous changes, that is, "Lewis turning point." "coming soon.
For a long time, there has been a widely recognized fact: China has gradually grown into a world manufacturing power by introducing capital and technology and leveraging its low-cost advantages.
"There is no basis for the saying that 'Lewis Turning Point' has appeared in China. China has not yet reached a full shortage of labor." At the first Sichuan County Economic Science Development Forum held on May 29, it participated in the Central No. 1 document for seven consecutive years. Han Jun, director of the rural ministry of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said.
From the "farm labor shortage" at the beginning of the year to the Toyota "strike door" today, Han Jun showed the audience a different perspective on urban and rural development.
The transfer of rural surplus labor is still the main channel to increase farmers' income
In view of the shortage of similar employment shortages in the coastal areas at the beginning of the year, some economists pointed out that the “labor shortage†is a surface phenomenon of supply and demand for labor, and the deeper level confirms the emergence of China’s “Lewis Turning Pointâ€.
What is the "Lewis Turning Point"? Experts explained that this is a common urban-rural dual structure phenomenon in developing countries. That is, due to the large agricultural population, rural surplus labor continues to shift to urban non-agricultural industries. Until one day, industrialization and urbanization absorb the superficial surplus labor. Clean, if you want to continue to absorb the surplus labor, you must increase labor costs, this critical point is called "Lewis turning point."
Has the "turning point" really appeared? Han Jun believes that this argument is unfounded and inappropriate. He gave a figure: last year's wage income still accounted for more than 40% of farmers' income, while the proportion of various types of state subsidies is still only about 3%. Therefore, improving rural employment transfer is still the main channel for income increase. He revealed that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, although the scale of the transfer of new rural surplus labor to the city will decline, it will reach more than 20 million.
However, Han Jun believes that there are two problems to be solved in promoting the transfer of rural labor: First, raise the wage level of migrant workers. The second is to improve the employment skills of migrant workers. Han Jun believes that a policy to be studied during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is to accelerate the popularization of high school education, especially secondary vocational education.
China not only has a dual structure of urban and rural areas, but also a "new ternary structure."
In the past few years, China’s urban-rural economy has not narrowed but expanded. In the speech, many experts confirmed this judgment from different angles.
One of the ways to narrow the urban gap is to expand the urbanization rate. At present, China's urbanization rate is about 46%, which is significantly lower than that of developed countries.
The process of upgrading urbanization rate is the process of farmers transforming to the public. But a complete transformation is not just to cancel rural hukou, but to solve their citizens' treatment.
"Now, China not only has a dual structure of urban and rural areas, but also a 'new ternary structure': farmers, migrant workers, and citizens." In Han Jun’s view, there are many contradictions and problems that need to be resolved to eliminate structural barriers, but the later The bigger the problem is solved. In response to the central government's proposal to relax the threshold for migrant workers in small and medium-sized cities and small towns, Han Jun believes that the development of county economy and small towns is the most important platform for farmers to transform into citizens. He suggested further expanding the economic management authority of counties and small towns, relying on policies to stimulate the vitality of industrial development in this region and create more job opportunities.
The ownership of rural collective land should be retained, allowing farmers to advance and retreat between urban and rural areas.
It will take 30 to 50 years for migrant workers to completely withdraw – when talking about innovative agricultural management methods, Han Jun made a prediction.
Han Jun noticed that in some places, the peasants’ land contractual management rights were also “unified†in the overall planning of urban and rural areas.
Han Jun believes that from the current situation in China, family management is still the foundation, and large-scale operation should emphasize "moderate". He further gave reasons: Although China's grain has been harvested for six consecutive years, the situation of food is in a state of basic balance between supply and demand, stocks are abundant, and food prices are basically stable. However, it cannot be taken lightly because this balance is a tight balance. Easy to be broken.
Therefore, China implements two of the most stringent systems: one is the most stringent farmland protection system; the other is the most stringent intensive land-saving system. In this context, Han Jun believes that the path and direction of land system innovation should be to preserve the ownership of rural collective land, farmland farming, income sharing; agricultural land use, urban and rural income sharing.
"It is possible to gradually market the rural construction land through the transfer of rural collective construction land use rights, but the ownership of the homestead and the benefits brought about by it must be left to the farmers." Han Jun said that even in the process of promoting urbanization, It is also necessary to "let the peasants advance and retreat between urban and rural areas."
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