Digitimes Research, a Taiwan market research agency, believes that with the major manufacturers rushing toward new processes and expanding production capacity, the global supply of DRAM memory chips in 2011 will exceed the actual demand by as much as 28%, far exceeding the 10% in 2010.
It is estimated that if the DRAM memory particles are converted into 1Gb models according to the capacity, the global production in 2011 will be about 3.23 billion, an annual increase of 58.8%, mainly due to the DRAM manufacturing process from 40nm level to 30nm level general upgrade The cost will be reduced and the profit will be improved, but at the same time, the market demand will only slowly increase to 2.32 billion, with an increase of only 27.2%, which has left more than 900 million surpluses.
The growth in the demand for DRAM memory chips mainly comes from consumer electronics products such as smart phones, LCD TVs, set-top boxes, and tablet computers. It is expected that the annual demand will exceed 500 million, which is a 67.4% increase compared to less than 300 million in 2010.
The oversupply of large areas will inevitably cause the price of DRAM memory chips to dive. The average price of 1Gb DDR3 granules in 2010 was 2.42 US dollars. In 2011, it may fall to 1.32 US dollars. In 2012, it may continue to fall to only 0.48 US dollars. The situation of the price of memory chips may also appear again. Interestingly, as of 2012, next-generation DDR4 memory chips are also expected to be commercially available.
As a result, the income and profits of DRAM manufacturers will inevitably shrink dramatically. The manufacturers that are not competitive in process, such as Powerchip, ProMOS, etc., may instead focus on the foreign foundry business.
It is estimated that if the DRAM memory particles are converted into 1Gb models according to the capacity, the global production in 2011 will be about 3.23 billion, an annual increase of 58.8%, mainly due to the DRAM manufacturing process from 40nm level to 30nm level general upgrade The cost will be reduced and the profit will be improved, but at the same time, the market demand will only slowly increase to 2.32 billion, with an increase of only 27.2%, which has left more than 900 million surpluses.
The growth in the demand for DRAM memory chips mainly comes from consumer electronics products such as smart phones, LCD TVs, set-top boxes, and tablet computers. It is expected that the annual demand will exceed 500 million, which is a 67.4% increase compared to less than 300 million in 2010.
The oversupply of large areas will inevitably cause the price of DRAM memory chips to dive. The average price of 1Gb DDR3 granules in 2010 was 2.42 US dollars. In 2011, it may fall to 1.32 US dollars. In 2012, it may continue to fall to only 0.48 US dollars. The situation of the price of memory chips may also appear again. Interestingly, as of 2012, next-generation DDR4 memory chips are also expected to be commercially available.
As a result, the income and profits of DRAM manufacturers will inevitably shrink dramatically. The manufacturers that are not competitive in process, such as Powerchip, ProMOS, etc., may instead focus on the foreign foundry business.