Similar to the eve of the industry's imminent eruption, various brokerages have issued research reports to support the LED lighting industry and related companies.
Two years ago, this small industry gradually emerged to A shares of money-sharing companies; in the past two years, many companies have more than five times the stock price. Today, with the joint implementation of the semiconductor lighting product application demonstration project (hereinafter referred to as "three ministries lighting project") jointly organized by the three ministries and commissions of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Housing, and the Ministry of Communications, it once again entered everyone's perspective.
Zhe Jiang, who is involved in LED applications [35.03-1.02%](600261.SH) Dong Qing, Wu Qingyi stated that it may take three years to see the current price of LED lights.
However, companies that make LED chips do not think so. Sanan Optoelectronics [43.00-1.24%] (600173.SH) and BDO Runda [18.60-2.26%] (002005.SZ) have invested heavily in key equipment. It began to increase production capacity several times and several times.
A series of LED lighting companies have seen a large increase in the previous period, and the stock price has reflected too much of the future. When moving from concept-oriented to performance-based speaking, in the end who will be able to step on the pace of the LED lighting market, can deliver a good performance, in line with today's investor expectations.
Will the start of next year start three years later?
"The advent of LED lighting era ... LED lighting is expected to start at the end of 2011 ... LED industry has entered a golden period of development..."
LED lights will replace incandescent lamps and become the main lighting tool, not just like the landscape lighting and other fields. It can be said that it is almost the consensus from the industry companies to the investment community. However, due to the fact that the cost of LED lamps is still high, it is the cost of LED lamps.
Shen Yinwanuo [3.81 0.00%] analyst Yu Bin pointed out in a research report on November 29 that LED lamps cost 10 times more than fluorescent lamps, but considering the power saving effect, the cost of illumination is the latter 5 Times within. He believes that LED lights can use 10,000 hours to recover costs.
This point has quite a market. Ever since, the advent of LED lighting era is overwhelming.
Zhejiang Sun Dongqing Wu Qingyi did not think so. Zhejiang Sunshine, recently involved in LED applications, is the only A-share company that has won the bidding for three ministries lighting projects. LED application is the most end of the entire LED lighting, and it is the closest to the consumer.
On December 6, Wu Qingyi told reporters: “The most common incandescent lamp is 1.5-3 yuan, and the corresponding power energy-saving lamp is about 10 yuan, which is 4-5 times worse. And the LED lamp is 10 times more expensive than the energy-saving lamp, so Its price/performance ratio is not good enough, and now European governments have banned the use or production of incandescent lamps, but in my opinion, the best alternative to incandescent lamps is energy-saving lamps within three years. Three times or so, the market will start very fast and there will be explosive growth."
Wu Qingyi stated: "The replacement of incandescent and halogen lamps by LED lamps is a general trend, so we will lay them out now. However, we cannot make long-term goals a short-term goal. At present, the company's main products are energy-saving lamps."
According to Wind statistics, in the past two years, Sanan Optoelectronics, BDO Runda, Silan Micro [23.03-0.90%] (600460.SH), Zhejiang Sunshine gained 100%, 650%, 61% and 436 respectively. %. During this period, Sanan Optoelectronics has issued two additional private placements. BDO Runda and Silan Micro have issued additional private placements. With each additional issuance, all agencies are eager to follow suit.
Within these two years, the top ten tradable shares of these companies are often seated in turns, and the public fund market accounts for seven seats.
Sanan Optoelectronics and Silan Micro mainly manufacture LED chips. In January 2009, BDO Runda entered the LED packaging industry through mergers and acquisitions. In the second half of this year, it will raise funds and raise 1.5 billion yuan to enter the LED chip field.
From the point of view of the entire industry chain, LED chips can only be counted in the middle, LED packaging and applications are in the downstream.
The LED chip, the cornerstone of which is the substrate material, is used to produce epitaxial wafers using MOCVD equipment. After the chip manufacturer purchases the two, it is made into chips and then cut into standardized chips. LED packaging industry is the chip for secondary optical processing, and LED applications are to make lamps.
Sanan Optoelectronics and BDO Runda, this year have shown the momentum of "highly gamble" LED chips, respectively announced that it will buy 200 and 130 MOCVD equipment. These devices are used for projects worth 12 billion yuan and 3 billion yuan respectively. The two companies, in 2009 LED chip sales were 450 million yuan and 0.
The unit price of MOCVD equipment is about 20 million yuan. The two companies purchased a piece of equipment and can receive subsidies of 8 million to 10 million yuan at the local government. If the price and subsidies remain the same, funding is not the biggest problem. However, the global MOCVD production this year is about 600 units. The amount they plan to purchase is half of the global capacity this year.
On December 7, Sanan Optoelectronics told reporters: “The first batch of 40 MOCVD we have ordered are coming in succession and we expect to start production at the beginning of next year. This batch of equipment is not more expensive than before. The substrate materials we ordered were mainly Sapphire-based, raw material prices have risen from the beginning of the year."
The above-mentioned Sanan Optoelectronics people are not worried about the marketing problem of expanding production capacity. “At present, the market is in short supply.†In summary, LED products must be reduced in price, and the market will start on a large scale. And its upstream is still an oligopolistic situation. Whether it will cut prices is still unknown.
When the production capacity is drastically expanded, possible technical difficulties or progress in mainstream technology will be too rapid, and it will also be a roadblock for the two companies to turn investment into a real gain.
A PE person in Shanghai pointed out: "I'm not very optimistic about doing chips. On the one hand, the quality of domestic LED chips is still quite different from the international comparison. On the other hand, technology updates are too fast for a chip manufacturer. A machine that can cut the chips into four pieces at one time was purchased, but a performance cut of sixteen pieces was made immediately."
According to this PE person, buying too many equipment at one time must prepare the necessary equipment; it is very easy to encounter the problem of backward equipment. Therefore, he is more optimistic about the downstream LED applications of enterprises: "The key is to buy a good chip, do not figure cheap. Then do a good job in the channel, make a really good application product."
Two years ago, this small industry gradually emerged to A shares of money-sharing companies; in the past two years, many companies have more than five times the stock price. Today, with the joint implementation of the semiconductor lighting product application demonstration project (hereinafter referred to as "three ministries lighting project") jointly organized by the three ministries and commissions of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Housing, and the Ministry of Communications, it once again entered everyone's perspective.
Zhe Jiang, who is involved in LED applications [35.03-1.02%](600261.SH) Dong Qing, Wu Qingyi stated that it may take three years to see the current price of LED lights.
However, companies that make LED chips do not think so. Sanan Optoelectronics [43.00-1.24%] (600173.SH) and BDO Runda [18.60-2.26%] (002005.SZ) have invested heavily in key equipment. It began to increase production capacity several times and several times.
A series of LED lighting companies have seen a large increase in the previous period, and the stock price has reflected too much of the future. When moving from concept-oriented to performance-based speaking, in the end who will be able to step on the pace of the LED lighting market, can deliver a good performance, in line with today's investor expectations.
Will the start of next year start three years later?
"The advent of LED lighting era ... LED lighting is expected to start at the end of 2011 ... LED industry has entered a golden period of development..."
LED lights will replace incandescent lamps and become the main lighting tool, not just like the landscape lighting and other fields. It can be said that it is almost the consensus from the industry companies to the investment community. However, due to the fact that the cost of LED lamps is still high, it is the cost of LED lamps.
Shen Yinwanuo [3.81 0.00%] analyst Yu Bin pointed out in a research report on November 29 that LED lamps cost 10 times more than fluorescent lamps, but considering the power saving effect, the cost of illumination is the latter 5 Times within. He believes that LED lights can use 10,000 hours to recover costs.
This point has quite a market. Ever since, the advent of LED lighting era is overwhelming.
Zhejiang Sun Dongqing Wu Qingyi did not think so. Zhejiang Sunshine, recently involved in LED applications, is the only A-share company that has won the bidding for three ministries lighting projects. LED application is the most end of the entire LED lighting, and it is the closest to the consumer.
On December 6, Wu Qingyi told reporters: “The most common incandescent lamp is 1.5-3 yuan, and the corresponding power energy-saving lamp is about 10 yuan, which is 4-5 times worse. And the LED lamp is 10 times more expensive than the energy-saving lamp, so Its price/performance ratio is not good enough, and now European governments have banned the use or production of incandescent lamps, but in my opinion, the best alternative to incandescent lamps is energy-saving lamps within three years. Three times or so, the market will start very fast and there will be explosive growth."
Wu Qingyi stated: "The replacement of incandescent and halogen lamps by LED lamps is a general trend, so we will lay them out now. However, we cannot make long-term goals a short-term goal. At present, the company's main products are energy-saving lamps."
According to Wind statistics, in the past two years, Sanan Optoelectronics, BDO Runda, Silan Micro [23.03-0.90%] (600460.SH), Zhejiang Sunshine gained 100%, 650%, 61% and 436 respectively. %. During this period, Sanan Optoelectronics has issued two additional private placements. BDO Runda and Silan Micro have issued additional private placements. With each additional issuance, all agencies are eager to follow suit.
Within these two years, the top ten tradable shares of these companies are often seated in turns, and the public fund market accounts for seven seats.
Sanan Optoelectronics and Silan Micro mainly manufacture LED chips. In January 2009, BDO Runda entered the LED packaging industry through mergers and acquisitions. In the second half of this year, it will raise funds and raise 1.5 billion yuan to enter the LED chip field.
From the point of view of the entire industry chain, LED chips can only be counted in the middle, LED packaging and applications are in the downstream.
The LED chip, the cornerstone of which is the substrate material, is used to produce epitaxial wafers using MOCVD equipment. After the chip manufacturer purchases the two, it is made into chips and then cut into standardized chips. LED packaging industry is the chip for secondary optical processing, and LED applications are to make lamps.
Sanan Optoelectronics and BDO Runda, this year have shown the momentum of "highly gamble" LED chips, respectively announced that it will buy 200 and 130 MOCVD equipment. These devices are used for projects worth 12 billion yuan and 3 billion yuan respectively. The two companies, in 2009 LED chip sales were 450 million yuan and 0.
The unit price of MOCVD equipment is about 20 million yuan. The two companies purchased a piece of equipment and can receive subsidies of 8 million to 10 million yuan at the local government. If the price and subsidies remain the same, funding is not the biggest problem. However, the global MOCVD production this year is about 600 units. The amount they plan to purchase is half of the global capacity this year.
On December 7, Sanan Optoelectronics told reporters: “The first batch of 40 MOCVD we have ordered are coming in succession and we expect to start production at the beginning of next year. This batch of equipment is not more expensive than before. The substrate materials we ordered were mainly Sapphire-based, raw material prices have risen from the beginning of the year."
The above-mentioned Sanan Optoelectronics people are not worried about the marketing problem of expanding production capacity. “At present, the market is in short supply.†In summary, LED products must be reduced in price, and the market will start on a large scale. And its upstream is still an oligopolistic situation. Whether it will cut prices is still unknown.
When the production capacity is drastically expanded, possible technical difficulties or progress in mainstream technology will be too rapid, and it will also be a roadblock for the two companies to turn investment into a real gain.
A PE person in Shanghai pointed out: "I'm not very optimistic about doing chips. On the one hand, the quality of domestic LED chips is still quite different from the international comparison. On the other hand, technology updates are too fast for a chip manufacturer. A machine that can cut the chips into four pieces at one time was purchased, but a performance cut of sixteen pieces was made immediately."
According to this PE person, buying too many equipment at one time must prepare the necessary equipment; it is very easy to encounter the problem of backward equipment. Therefore, he is more optimistic about the downstream LED applications of enterprises: "The key is to buy a good chip, do not figure cheap. Then do a good job in the channel, make a really good application product."