The rebound of electricity consumption elasticity coefficient: According to the 2010 Electricity Statistics Express released by the CEC, the country’s total electricity consumption was 4.19 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 14.58%. The major rebound in heavy industry is the main force, accounting for 67% of the new volume in the same year, and has contributed to the rebound in the elasticity of electricity consumption in 2010. The year-on-year growth rate of power generation dropped significantly: In December 2010, the power generation volume increased by 5.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5% from November. The year-on-year growth rate in December 2010 decreased significantly compared with the same period in 2009. On the whole, the power generation volume in December showed a continued deceleration of growth, reflecting the slowing trend of economic growth from the power point of view. The slightly lower installed capacity is expected: In 2010, 91.27 million kilowatts of new generating units will be installed, 11 million kilowatts of small units will be shut down, and the calculated technical capacity will increase by 7.85 million kilowatts. Although the newly added units were lower than our expectation of 99.38 million kilowatts, the shut-down capacity dropped significantly year-on-year, making the total installed capacity still exceed expectations. Rapid increase in utilization hours: The two most prominent characteristics of utilization hours in 2010 are: (1) The utilization hours of hydropower began to rise.
Due to the relatively abundant water supply in the year and the lower base in 2009, the utilization hours rose slightly by 3% year-on-year. (2) The utilization of thermal power exceeded expectations. Under the impetus of economic recovery, thermal power utilization hours exceeded expectations and rose 3.4% for the full year. For the first time since 2004, it has risen.
The price of domestic thermal coal market is stable: In 2010, thermal coal increased gradually, and Qinhuangdao coal's closing price fluctuates less. Therefore, the spread between Qinhuangdao and Datong is in decline in the past six months. In January and February 2011, the domestic thermal coal market stabilized and prices remained stable.
The off-season of coal prices is not thin: In February 2011, Australia's BJ prices rose sharply and reached US$130/ton. In the coming period, the price of oil may continue to rise. Driven by the rise in oil prices, coal prices in the international market will continue to be supported. After entering the traditional off-season in March, it is expected that there will be some loosening of coal prices in the port, but considering that the domestic and international coal price upside down trend has been formed, the pressure on the domestic thermal coal prices is not strong, and the stability is mainly based.
Some companies finance: Changjiang Power, Jidian Power, Three Gorges Water Resources, Huitian Thermal Power and other companies conduct capital operations by issuing short-term financing bills, medium-term notes, or convertible bonds, optimizing corporate financial structure, reducing financial costs, and improving The status of production and operation improves the company's profitability.
Thermal power companies have serious losses: According to the statistics of the five largest power generation groups, in recent years, due to the sharp increase in the price of thermal coal, the cost of fuel for thermal power companies has accounted for more than 70% of the cost of power generation. At the same time, coal-fired linkage policies have not been put in place and power generation companies have suffered serious losses. In 2010, coal prices continued to rise at a high level, which was a year-on-year increase of RMB 122.4/tonne, resulting in a significant increase in the fuel costs of the five major power generation groups and the loss of thermal power companies was as high as more than 55%.
The call for a coal-fired linkage restart: The proposal of the “two sessions†representative committee members of the five major power generation group systems gradually surfaced, and the call for “coal power and coal linkage†has almost become a common theme in the proposal of the representative members. Prior to this, due to the renewed rise in thermal coal prices in January 2011, less than 70% of key contract coals were honoured. The five major power generation groups jointly reported to the SASAC, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the State Council to reflect the increase in coal prices and the operation of power generation companies. Conditions, and promote the introduction of coal-fired linkage policy.
Industry Rating: Considering the current fundamentals, valuations, and market environment of the power industry, we believe that there is no investment opportunity for the entire industry and maintain the industry's rating of “Synchronous Market-Aâ€. Only hope that 'coal power and electricity linkage', the overall situation of the power industry has improved.
Due to the relatively abundant water supply in the year and the lower base in 2009, the utilization hours rose slightly by 3% year-on-year. (2) The utilization of thermal power exceeded expectations. Under the impetus of economic recovery, thermal power utilization hours exceeded expectations and rose 3.4% for the full year. For the first time since 2004, it has risen.
The price of domestic thermal coal market is stable: In 2010, thermal coal increased gradually, and Qinhuangdao coal's closing price fluctuates less. Therefore, the spread between Qinhuangdao and Datong is in decline in the past six months. In January and February 2011, the domestic thermal coal market stabilized and prices remained stable.
The off-season of coal prices is not thin: In February 2011, Australia's BJ prices rose sharply and reached US$130/ton. In the coming period, the price of oil may continue to rise. Driven by the rise in oil prices, coal prices in the international market will continue to be supported. After entering the traditional off-season in March, it is expected that there will be some loosening of coal prices in the port, but considering that the domestic and international coal price upside down trend has been formed, the pressure on the domestic thermal coal prices is not strong, and the stability is mainly based.
Some companies finance: Changjiang Power, Jidian Power, Three Gorges Water Resources, Huitian Thermal Power and other companies conduct capital operations by issuing short-term financing bills, medium-term notes, or convertible bonds, optimizing corporate financial structure, reducing financial costs, and improving The status of production and operation improves the company's profitability.
Thermal power companies have serious losses: According to the statistics of the five largest power generation groups, in recent years, due to the sharp increase in the price of thermal coal, the cost of fuel for thermal power companies has accounted for more than 70% of the cost of power generation. At the same time, coal-fired linkage policies have not been put in place and power generation companies have suffered serious losses. In 2010, coal prices continued to rise at a high level, which was a year-on-year increase of RMB 122.4/tonne, resulting in a significant increase in the fuel costs of the five major power generation groups and the loss of thermal power companies was as high as more than 55%.
The call for a coal-fired linkage restart: The proposal of the “two sessions†representative committee members of the five major power generation group systems gradually surfaced, and the call for “coal power and coal linkage†has almost become a common theme in the proposal of the representative members. Prior to this, due to the renewed rise in thermal coal prices in January 2011, less than 70% of key contract coals were honoured. The five major power generation groups jointly reported to the SASAC, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the State Council to reflect the increase in coal prices and the operation of power generation companies. Conditions, and promote the introduction of coal-fired linkage policy.
Industry Rating: Considering the current fundamentals, valuations, and market environment of the power industry, we believe that there is no investment opportunity for the entire industry and maintain the industry's rating of “Synchronous Market-Aâ€. Only hope that 'coal power and electricity linkage', the overall situation of the power industry has improved.
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