On January 5th, the Swiss bank released the in-depth report on the "Improvement of the Industrial Chain of the Low-end Smartphones." The report pointed out that the price of entry-level smartphones will drop to 400 to 500 yuan in 2013, and the annual smartphone shipments in 2014 will reach 250 million. In 2015, the domestic smart phone market will be saturated.
The report pointed out that the penetration rate of smart phones by the end of 2011 may reach 12%. With the rapid decline in the price of processor chips and other major components, the price of entry-level smartphones will fall to 600-700 yuan by the end of 2012 and will drop to 400-500 yuan by the end of 2013, which means that 70% of domestic users at the end of 2013 Affordable smartphones.
It is reported that the current penetration rate of Chinese smartphones among mobile phone users is about 12%, and it is expected that it will reach 25% in 2012, 40% in 2013, and 50% in 2014. Correspondingly, shipments reached 80 million in 2011, 150 million in 2012, 210 million in 2013, and 250 million in 2014.
With the change of smart phones, the competitive landscape of China's telecommunications industry will also change. This change will benefit telecom companies that have gained stronger support in mobile phones, namely China Unicom and China Telecom, but it will not benefit China Mobile; it will benefit mobile phones. Retailers are not good for mobile phone wholesalers; they are good for domestic mobile phone brands but not for foreign mobile phone brands and white card mobile phone manufacturers.
According to the report, with the rapid expansion of the scale effect of entry-level smartphones, value chain support will become more mature and efficient, and the cost of components will also drop rapidly. The price of a 3.5-inch touch screen in 2012 may fall from US$9 to US$5-6, 256 MB from US$9 to US$4-5, and a 5MP camera from US$10 to US$5-6. Based on this estimate, the material cost of an entry-level smartphone in 2012 will decrease by about 30% year-on-year.
The data also predicts that Android's market share will increase to about 55% in 2012, and Saipan will drop to about 20%. After that, Android's market share may remain at around 65%, and it is expected that the 2012 Windows platform will replace Saipan's 20% market share.
The report said that 2,000 yuan will be the price gap between international brands and domestic brands. Analysts expect that international brands will continue to dominate the high-end smart phone market (prices over 2,000 yuan) by virtue of their brand advantage. Domestic suppliers with great price advantages will surpass international brands in the low-end and mid-range smartphone markets. It is expected that the market share of domestic mobile phone manufacturers will increase from 18% in 2010 to 22% in 2011, 36% in 2012 and 42% in 2013.
The report pointed out that the penetration rate of smart phones by the end of 2011 may reach 12%. With the rapid decline in the price of processor chips and other major components, the price of entry-level smartphones will fall to 600-700 yuan by the end of 2012 and will drop to 400-500 yuan by the end of 2013, which means that 70% of domestic users at the end of 2013 Affordable smartphones.
It is reported that the current penetration rate of Chinese smartphones among mobile phone users is about 12%, and it is expected that it will reach 25% in 2012, 40% in 2013, and 50% in 2014. Correspondingly, shipments reached 80 million in 2011, 150 million in 2012, 210 million in 2013, and 250 million in 2014.
With the change of smart phones, the competitive landscape of China's telecommunications industry will also change. This change will benefit telecom companies that have gained stronger support in mobile phones, namely China Unicom and China Telecom, but it will not benefit China Mobile; it will benefit mobile phones. Retailers are not good for mobile phone wholesalers; they are good for domestic mobile phone brands but not for foreign mobile phone brands and white card mobile phone manufacturers.
According to the report, with the rapid expansion of the scale effect of entry-level smartphones, value chain support will become more mature and efficient, and the cost of components will also drop rapidly. The price of a 3.5-inch touch screen in 2012 may fall from US$9 to US$5-6, 256 MB from US$9 to US$4-5, and a 5MP camera from US$10 to US$5-6. Based on this estimate, the material cost of an entry-level smartphone in 2012 will decrease by about 30% year-on-year.
The data also predicts that Android's market share will increase to about 55% in 2012, and Saipan will drop to about 20%. After that, Android's market share may remain at around 65%, and it is expected that the 2012 Windows platform will replace Saipan's 20% market share.
The report said that 2,000 yuan will be the price gap between international brands and domestic brands. Analysts expect that international brands will continue to dominate the high-end smart phone market (prices over 2,000 yuan) by virtue of their brand advantage. Domestic suppliers with great price advantages will surpass international brands in the low-end and mid-range smartphone markets. It is expected that the market share of domestic mobile phone manufacturers will increase from 18% in 2010 to 22% in 2011, 36% in 2012 and 42% in 2013.
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